FPL Gameweek 38: Top 5 Differentials That Could Secure Your Victory
The exhilarating finale of the **2024/25 Fantasy Premier League** season is upon us! Gameweek 38 presents a **golden opportunity** to climb the ranks or snatch a coveted win in your mini-league.
So, how can you gain the upper hand? The answer lies in making **smart differential picks**.
We’ve meticulously curated a list of five players — each owned by fewer than **10% of managers** — who have the potential to deliver spectacular returns this week.
Our Differential Selection Criteria:
- 3 attacking players (midfielders or forwards)
- 2 defensive players (goalkeeper or defenders)
- All with under 10% ownership
Are you ready to unearth those hidden gems that can provide the edge you need?
Let’s jump straight in!
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1. Evanilson: The Hidden Gem Ready to Shine
**Evanilson** has quietly become a standout performer for **Bournemouth**, accumulating **126 FPL points** with an impressive tally of 10 goals and 5 assists.
Among forwards who have played over **1,000 minutes**, his expected goals (xG) per game stands at **0.44**, ranking him the sixth-best in the league, as evidenced in the Opta Stats Sandbox. With an average of **0.34 actual goals per game**, there’s promising room for positive regression in the final Gameweek.
Initially spotlighted as a leading pick alongside **Kluivert** for Bournemouth, Evanilson’s importance heightened after Kluivert’s surprising first-half substitution against Manchester City, elevating his differential appeal considerably.
Although Evanilson previously missed a penalty earlier in the season, if Kluivert is sidelined again, he could reclaim those duties in Gameweek 38, enhancing his value drastically.
With **just 4.1% ownership**, this forward could be the hidden treasure you’re looking for as Bournemouth hosts **Leicester** in their final match, projected to earn **5.1 points**.
2. Trossard: The Final Day Game-Changer
**Leandro Trossard** has emerged as Arsenal’s most potent attacking force in recent weeks.
Since **Gameweek 31**, he leads all Arsenal players in FPL points (**47**), goals (**4**), and bonus points (**8**), according to the Opta Stats Sandbox.
Trossard ranks equally with Saka in total shots (**18**), but tops the stats for shots in the box (**15**) and shots on target (**8**).
With Arsenal up against **Southampton** in Gameweek 38, there’s significant FPL potential. However, given Arsenal’s current lack of stakes, be wary of possible rotation; it’s prudent to keep an eye on team news leading up to the deadline.
**Gabriel Martinelli** is a viable alternative too, but Trossard’s advanced role in attack makes him a more enticing option. Utilize Opta’s Heatmap tool to examine the data supporting this.
With a mere **3.8% ownership**, Trossard presents an alluring differential for this decisive final Gameweek.
3. Callum Wilson: A Goal-Scoring Aficionado
With **Alexander Isak** potentially out, **Callum Wilson** emerges as a tantalizing option for Gameweek 38.
Newcastle still aspire for **Champions League qualification**, a backdrop that could fuel an electrifying performance from their forwards.
Despite limited minutes (just **337** overall this season), an examination of the Comparison Matrix reveals Wilson’s incredible ability to deliver — **10 attacking returns** in only **19** appearances, averaging an impressive **0.82 goals per 90 minutes**.
Even if rust has set in, facing an **Everton** side lacking motivation could be the perfect opportunity for Wilson to remind FPL managers of his potency.
With low ownership and a potential pivotal role in this crucial match, Wilson could very well be the high-reward differential you need.
4. Huijsen: A Rising Star to Consider
**Dean Huijsen** has showcased remarkable prowess for Bournemouth this season, with talk of a **£50 million move to Real Madrid** on the horizon. Accumulating **100 FPL points** from **3 goals** and **1 assist**, he’s been a key figure this season.
In contrast to **Milos Kerkez** — the more popular pick with **17.6% ownership** — Huijsen’s playing time grants him additional appeal; he has displayed greater goal threat metrics in comparison to Kerkez based on Opta Heatmaps.
With only **4.6% ownership**, Huijsen could prove invaluable for your differential picks as Bournemouth squares off against **Leicester**. His projected **4.7 points** indicate significant potential for performance both defensively and offensively.
5. Kiwior: A Steady Defensive Option
With **William Saliba** being assessed for fitness, the door for **Jakub Kiwior** has swung open for Arsenal’s final encounter. The prospect of rotation exists, but expect Kiwior to benefit from the current reshuffling in defense.
Arsenal has excelled defensively this season, yielding just **16 goals** in away matches — a record that surpasses even formidable teams like Man City and Everton, as indicated by the Opta Stats Sandbox. With the **best xCS figure** in the league, Arsenal’s away defense demonstrates a solid potential for clean sheets.
The challenge against **Southampton**, a side floundering in attack with merely **12 home goals** across 18 matches, presents an inviting opportunity for Kiwior.
With a mere **2.5% ownership** and a projected **4.6 points**, Kiwior is positioned as a dependable source of clean sheet points and a ticket into a top-performing defense. A savvy last-minute differential could very well be your secret weapon!
Conclusion: Your Season Could Be Defined by Differentials
As we approach Gameweek 38, selecting the right differential could spearhead an instant surge — whether you’re battling in mini-leagues or aiming for a personal best rank.
Players like Evanilson, Trossard, Wilson, Huijsen, and Kiwior hold tremendous upside potential while being under the radar, making them the ideal choices for that **bold tactical edge** you seek.
Sure, risks linger—whether it’s rotation at Arsenal, injuries at Newcastle, or uncertainties at Bournemouth. But therein lies the essence of differentials. Gameweek 38 is notorious for surprises, and strategic risks on in-form or overlooked players can yield a windfall.
Stay sharp by monitoring press conferences, team leaks, and last-minute updates ahead of the deadline—especially with players like Isak and Saliba in the balance. In this game, information is your best ally.
Good luck in your quest, and may your final arrows of the season land **in the green!**
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