Thursday Football Tips: Spotlight on Guga in Crucial Copa Sudamericana Clash
- Right-back Guga has been carded in 6 of his 13 starts this season.
- Fluminense must secure a win—back Guga for at least 1 shot.
- Bet Builder double stands at an attractive 6/1.
Fluminense vs. Once Caldas Thursday, May 29, 01:30 (Fri, BST)
As the Copa Sudamericana group stage heats up, all eyes will be on Thursday night’s titanic clash to determine the winner of Group F.
Fluminense finds themselves in a must-win situation to finish atop the group, while Once Caldas only requires a point to secure first place and avoid a playoff against teams dropping from the Copa Libertadores.
Given the high stakes and a card-happy referee, the card markets present an enticing opportunity for punters.
Leg 1: Back Guga for a Card
Argentine referee Dario Herrera has a reputation for brandishing cards, having shown an astonishing 32 cards across just six CONMEBOL assignments this season. Last season, he issued red cards in seven out of nine Copa Libertadores matches.
The Colombian side comes into matchday six with the third-most cards in the tournament, while Fluminense averages a solid two cards per match within this group stage.
Fluminense are heavily favored to win, yet the odds for player cards have become inflated, making this an irresistible betting angle.
With pressure mounting on the hosts, expect emotions to run high, especially if Once Caldas keeps the scoreline tight early on.
The player to focus on is Guga, who is expected to retain his position at right-back amidst intense media speculation.
The defender had a standout performance in his side’s recent victory over Vasco da Gama but also received a booking. He has been carded in six of his 13 starts this season and can be backed at an enticing 10/3.
This is a wager worth taking.
For a Bet Builder, let’s also consider Guga to record at least one shot on goal.
With newfound confidence following a goal last weekend and having taken two shots in that game, he has managed to hit the target in four of his last seven starts.
Given the imperative need for victory, expect Guga to charge forward down the right flank, aiding Fluminense in their quest for three crucial points.
Combining these bets yields a value of just under 6/1.
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Column Performance Overview
Staked: 316pts
Returned: 321.31pts
Current Season P/L: +5.31pts
Previous Seasons P/L: +16.78pts (2023/24), +68.69pts (2022/23)
