In the world of **fantasy football**, the **first-round draft pick** carries an aura of invincibility. However, the reality is far more complicated. Just like picks in any other round, first-round selections can come with unexpected risks. When those risks align with other factors, a promising player can quickly become a bust. Are you ready to dive into the most likely bust candidates for your 2025 fantasy football team?
Top First-Round Candidates for Busts in Fantasy Football
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: RB3
Saquon Barkley dazzled fantasy owners last season, averaging **22.2 fantasy points per game**. His explosive performance was crucial for many fantasy teams that ended the season victorious. So, why is he a candidate for bust status in 2025? **Let’s examine the factors at play.**
While Barkley thrived in a run-heavy offense, delivering **2,005 yards** and **15 touchdowns**, his **draft position** has drastically changed. Now, you’re expected to invest a premium pick between **1.01 and 1.03**. This marks a significant shift from last year, where you could snag him at a more favorable spot towards the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2.
Moreover, the **”curse of 370″** looms large over running backs who accumulate heavy workloads. In 2024, Barkley had a staggering **436 carries**. Historical stats indicate a drop-off the following season for backs who exceed this threshold, making him a potential risk despite his past success. Joe Pisapia’s tweet highlights this trend with numerous examples.
Consider this: the Eagles had only **448 pass attempts** as a team last season—the **third lowest** since the NFL adopted a **17-game schedule**. An increase in passing attempts could mean fewer rushing opportunities for Barkley. In addition, if touchdowns start favoring other players in the passing game, his value could drop significantly. Barkley’s reliance on rushing could severely hinder his upside if he sees a reduction in carries or scores fewer touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ADP: RB6
Christian McCaffrey is a name that resonates with fantasy enthusiasts, having established himself as one of the finest running backs of his era. However, sentimentality has no place in draft strategies. As we head into 2025, the question is: can McCaffrey still deliver the performance that demands a first-round pick?
Recent injuries—including **tendinitis** in both Achilles and a **PCL sprain**—raise red flags. While offseason reports tout his improved health, it’s essential to remember that optimistic news often accompanies training camps. A glance back at McCaffrey’s career reveals that since **2020**, he has missed time due to leg issues every season except for **2022**. After accumulating **1,871 total touches** over eight seasons, it’s fair to wonder how much tread is left on those tires.
Even though McCaffrey racked up over **2,000 total yards** last season, the reality check is stark: running backs usually don’t age well. **Running back years** aren’t like fine wine; they tend to diminish rapidly. Drafting him in the first round in 2025 feels risky, especially at age 29. Unless you can nab him at a more brand-friendly ADP, it might be prudent to let someone else take the gamble.
Final Thoughts on First-Round Busts
As the fantasy football season approaches, understanding the risks associated with your first-round picks is crucial for success. While both Barkley and McCaffrey have had exceptional careers, their current trajectories suggest that they could become busts in 2025.
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Remember, drafting is only one part of the game. Stay engaged, do your research, and adapt your strategy as the season unfolds.
