Insights from "Market Plus" with Jeff French and Ross Baldwin
Welcome to another engaging episode of Market Plus, hosted by the ever-inquisitive Paul Yeager. In this installment, originally aired on June 20, 2025, we dive into agricultural insights with market experts Jeff French and Ross Baldwin. Join us as we explore vital questions impacting the commodity markets, and uncover strategies to navigate today’s complex trading environment.
Coaching vs. Commodities: The Stress Factors
Yeager kicks things off with a light-hearted question about Baldwin’s role as a softball coach. While Baldwin juggles coaching his daughter’s team, he admits, “Coaching is probably more stressful than reading cattle on feed reports.” This playful banter sets the tone for an enlightening discussion on market dynamics.
The State of Commodity Markets
One of the pivotal questions arises from Scott in Wisconsin: What would a neutralized Iranian regime mean for the commodity markets? French responds thoughtfully, noting that conflict in the region has been ongoing for decades, creating uncertainty.
“The Strait of Hormuz is crucial,” he warns. “If it gets closed, we could see another surge in oil prices.”
The conversation draws attention to current market tensions, with wheat prices down amid increasing risks.
Livestock Markets: Minimal Impact from Geopolitical Issues
When addressing concerns about the geopolitical landscape on livestock, Baldwin notes, “There’s little to no fundamental impact from developments in Israel and Iran affecting U.S. meat trade.” Instead, he believes market vulnerabilities stem from cattle cash prices and the broader economic context.
Key Indicators of Market Trends
Delving deeper into market indicators, Baldwin highlights the key reversal patterns observed over the past several months.
“Every time we see a new contract high followed by a reversal, it’s crucial to pay attention.”
This underscores the importance of monitoring technical signals alongside market fundamentals, especially in trading.
Understanding Price Dynamics
As the discussion progresses, Yeager prods for insights on cattle prices and market inputs. Baldwin emphasizes the significance of feed costs:
“When feed is inexpensive, the fundamentals drive the market, supporting feeder cattle prices.”
On the other hand, French points out the looming pressures from rising diesel prices, attributed to recent tensions in the Middle East.
Wheat Market Volatility
The conversation shifts to the wheat market, prompted by Eric from Ohio. French notes recent volatility, pinpointing short covering by funds as a significant driver:
“Funds were short coming into this week, leading to a rally driven by geopolitical events.”
Mixing changing weather conditions, French suggests a blend of factors at play, leaving traders cautiously optimistic.
The Corn Market: A Balancing Act
Ronald from Iowa poses a pivotal question about corn prices. French maintains, “The $4.35 mark is my line in the sand.” He explains that while seasonal factors influence corn prices, market participants are actively speculating about upcoming acreage reports.
Expectations for Acreage Reports
With the upcoming acreage report, Baldwin reflects on potential surprises:
“The market has been anticipating more corn acres,” he notes. “The key will be watching how this interacts with feed demand and export markets.”
French echoes these sentiments, cautioning traders about the risks of being too speculative.
Preparing for Market Changes
As the episode wraps up, Baldwin wisely advises traders:
“Prepare for the unexpected. Being ready for a correction is key as market conditions evolve.”
Yeager concludes by urging viewers to subscribe to the Market to Market Insider newsletter for ongoing insights.
Final Thoughts
The landscape of commodity trading is fraught with challenges—we’ve learned that staying adaptable is crucial. As French and Baldwin illustrated, understanding the interplay between geopolitical events, fundamental market dynamics, and technical indicators can empower traders. Stay informed and ready to pivot as the market unfolds!
For more in-depth analysis, explore the insights shared on Market to Market.
Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves substantial risk. No warranty is given or implied by Iowa PBS or the analysts who appear on Market to Market. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
