Todd Zola
Ensure you’ve got your **fantasy baseball lineup** firing on all cylinders! 【Check out our starting pitcher rankings and lineup selection tools here】 to make those all-important decisions. Plus, don’t miss our daily rundown of 【MLB betting tips】 to enhance your sports betting strategy. Looking for the latest odds? We’ve got you covered with information from 【ESPN BET】. All fantasy advice is specifically tailored for **ESPN 10-team leagues** with **standard scoring**.
Note: This article is accurate as of its publication date. Stay up to date by checking out the most recent 【fantasy baseball news】, so you don’t miss out on player injuries, promotions, or lineup changes!
Jump to: Pitching Notes | Hitting Notes | Betting Tips
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🎯 **Saturday’s Streaming Pitchers**
1. Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants
Roupp is off to a **bumpy start** this season, but don’t let that deter you! With a jaw-dropping **29.9% strikeout rate** and just one homer allowed in 15 innings, Roupp is primed for a great performance against a **Los Angeles Angels** lineup that has been swinging and missing at an alarming rate. With a **high .410 BABIP**, better days are ahead if he can keep the walks down (currently at **10.4%**). This matchup could very well play to his advantage!
2. Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
Despite a **3.93 ERA**, Liberatore has showcased significant improvements in command, issuing just one walk and allowing only one home run across his last three appearances. He’s set to face the **New York Mets** in pitcher-friendly Citi Field, an ideal setting against a lineup struggling against southpaws. **Expect a strong showing** from Liberatore this weekend.
3. Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
After revamping his pitch mix by introducing a cutter, Mize is trending in the right direction, despite a rocky last outing. He’s got a great opportunity to bounce back at home against a **Kansas City Royals** team that ranks near the bottom for wOBA against righties. **Count on Mize** to capitalize on this ripe matchup!
🚫 **Pitchers to Avoid on Saturday**
1. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
If you’re considering a streamer, steer clear of Eovaldi against the **Los Angeles Dodgers**. With diminished velocity and rising hard-hit rates, he’s a risky play in your lineup. Save those starts for a more favorable matchup!
🔥 **Top Matchups for Pitchers**
Chicago Cubs against Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C
The average pitcher in this matchup would see a 3.80 ERA.
Philadelphia Phillies against Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F
The average pitcher here would post a 3.89 ERA.
Kansas City Royals against Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: D
💔 **Today’s Worst Matchups for Pitchers**
Chicago White Sox against Red Sox hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F
The average pitcher here would expect a rough 5.56 ERA.
Cincinnati Reds against Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: F
Minnesota Twins against Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D- | Wind: B
🌟 **Saturday’s Hitter Streaming Options**
🔝 Today’s Best Matchups for Hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. White Sox pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: A+
Colorado Rockies LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: B
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: A+
🚫 Today’s Worst Matchups for Hitters
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: D
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: C
📈 **Betting Tips**
Explore the best and worst matchups, plus betting projections powered by THE BAT X—a sophisticated system developed by Derek Carty that utilizes advanced analytics similar to those employed by MLB front offices. This system considers critical factors like player talent, ballpark dimensions, bullpens, weather conditions, umpires, defensive metrics, and catcher pitch framing.
Note: Expected Value (EV) measures the potential profitability of a bet, assessing the likelihood of winning against the odds offered by bookmakers. If you placed a $1 wager 100 times on a proposition with an Expected Value of $25, you’d expect to walk away with a $25 profit on your $100 total investment in the long run.
⚾ **Today’s Top Home Run Prop Bets**
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 23% chance of hitting, with a $49.83 EV
Why Bet?: Guerrero has a 39.4% fly ball rate aimed at center field, conveniently aligned with MLB’s **10th-shallowest CF fence** today.
George Springer | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of hitting, with a $29.06 EV
Why Bet?: This season, Springer’s exit velocity has surged to 93.6 mph, a notable jump from 87.4 mph last year!
Alec Burleson | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of hitting, with a $27.80 EV
Why Bet?: Burleson’s **opposite-field fly ball rate** ranks in the 87th percentile, perfectly positioning him for success at today’s venue with a notably shallow LF fence.
🎯 **Today’s Top Pitcher Prop Bets**
Jose Berrios | OVER 2.5 ER (+115)
Probability: 55% chance of hitting, with a $19.09 EV
Why Bet?: Facing six right-handed hitters today, each with a substantial on-base percentage, Berrios could be in for a challenging outing.
Chris Sale | OVER 7.5 K (+110)
Probability: 57% chance of hitting, with a $19.47 EV
Why Bet?: The lineup he’s facing features four players with a high strikeout rate, making this a ripe opportunity for Sale to rack up the Ks.
Roki Sasaki | OVER 4.5 K (+105)
Probability: 58% chance of hitting, with an $18.08 EV
Why Bet?: Globe Life Field is rated as the **No. 6 ballpark** for strikeouts, giving Sasaki a favorable backdrop for his strikeout numbers.
🏏 **Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets**
White Sox @ Red Sox | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of a run with a $2.93 EV
D-Backs @ Cubs | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of no run with a $0.62 EV
With these insights at your fingertips, you’re not just participating; you’re gearing up to dominate your fantasy baseball leagues and betting strategies! ⚾️
