As the baseball world gears up for an exciting Thursday, **fantasy baseball enthusiasts** and **betting aficionados** alike have a golden opportunity to maximize their success. With our expert insights, you can not only build a robust **fantasy lineup** but also boost your chances at winning those critical bets. Check out our **[starting pitcher rankings](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/)** and other **lineup selection tools** to elevate your game!
We’ll also be sharing **[MLB betting tips](https://www.espn.com/chalk/)** tailored for today’s slate of games, and you can find up-to-the-minute **MLB game odds** provided by **[ESPN BET](https://espnbet.app.link/uiWE8nPBnJb)**. Remember, all our fantasy advice is designed for **ESPN 10-team leagues** and is based on **[standard scoring](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/43425955/espn-playbook-inning-1-draft-kit-advice-how-play-fantasy-baseball)**.
Note: All data is verified as of publication. Stay updated with the latest **[fantasy baseball news](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/44288339/espn-fantasy-baseball-buzz-injuries-promotions-demotions-trades-prospects-lineup-changes-mlb-news-analysis)** for any new developments that could impact your roster.
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Pitchers to Stream on Friday
AJ Smith-Shawver from the Atlanta Braves is a promising option to consider. His walk rate has significantly improved, but he’ll need to tighten up his game as RHP Spencer Strider is set to return soon. Smith-Shawver is squaring off against the Washington Nationals—a matchup that could bolster his chances for a solid outing. With a four-seam fastball and splitter to back him up, this might just be the chance he needs to impress the Braves’ coaching staff.
Consider Nick Martinez of the Cincinnati Reds, who has delivered three consecutive quality starts. Even with a recent outing yielding ten hits, his ability to avoid walks and homers makes him a risk worth taking. Facing the Chicago White Sox at home offers a great opportunity for another strong performance.
Today’s Best Matchups for Hitters
Cincinnati Reds vs. White Sox
The Reds are primed for a potent offensive display, boasting an SP grade of A+, while their environment reports favorable conditions.
Atlanta Braves vs. Nationals
With an A+ SP grade, Braves batters are in an excellent position to capitalize on this matchup.
Betting Tips
Explore the **best/worst pitcher and hitter matchups** along with betting projections generated by **THE BAT X**, a cutting-edge model that takes into account numerous factors like **player talent**, **bullpen strength**, and even **weather conditions**. You can find comprehensive betting projections at **EV Analytics**.
Be Sure to Consider: Expected Value (EV) is essential to identify the soundness of a bet. For example, if you placed $1.00 on a bet with an EV of $25 across 100 attempts, you would expect to see a return on your investment.
Today’s Top HR Prop Bets
- Shea Langeliers | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 23% chance, $23.75 EV. With Dodger Stadium’s low fence heights, this is a tempting option. - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 24% chance, $22.20 EV. He’s hitting in one of the best parks for HR; don’t overlook this one! - Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance, $12.46 EV. His trend of hitting to right field aligns well with today’s park factors.
Today’s Top Pitcher Prop Bets
- Jacob deGrom | OVER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance, $12.55 EV. His elite fastball velocity places him among the top of this category. - Trevor Williams | UNDER 3.5 K (+120)
Projection: 49% chance, $6.88 EV. An unfavorable spin rate lowers his strikeout potential. - Hunter Brown | UNDER 6.5 K (-140)
Projection: 62% chance, $8.85 EV. Weather factors lean away from strikeouts today.
Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
- Astros @ Rangers | NRFI (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of NO RUN, $5.18 EV. - Athletics @ Dodgers | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN, $2.45 EV.
